Scouting Report
Aatu Raty holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Raty on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 9 meetings). Raty wins 59.8% vs left-shot opponents — McDavid shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Raty 58.7% vs McDavid 47.8% (+11.8%)
H2H factor
Raty leads 10-2 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Raty 72.6%
Defensive zone
Raty 95.2%
Neutral zone
Raty 88.7%
Result
Aatu Raty favored at 89.5%
89.5%
10.5%
Raty
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
2
(12 meetings)
10
2
Raty
McDavid
Last 10: Raty 9-1 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
2
Raty
McDavid
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Raty
9
0
Raty
McDavid
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Raty
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
58.5% (866)
47.7% (8,358)
+10.8%
Power Play
72.2% (36)
52.0% (371)
+20.2%
Penalty Kill
63.2% (106)
43.4% (279)
+19.8%
On power play, Raty has a +20.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Raty is 59.8% vs left-shot opponents (666).
Raty shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,903).
Home / Away
Raty
McDavid
Home
59.6% (547)
49.3% (4,570)
Away
59.4% (461)
46.1% (4,438)
By Period
Raty
McDavid
P1
59.5%
46.5%
P2
62.8%
48.7%
P3
56.6%
48.3%
OT
53.3%
40.9%
Final 5 min
62.0%
50.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Raty
68.0%▲
63.5%
59.5%
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 06:29 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 19:54 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 06:20 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 07:59 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 14:30 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 19:24 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 17:22 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 09:09 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 3 | 16:31 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 3 | 13:34 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 02:36 | Offensive | Aatu Raty |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 1 | 02:23 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |