Scouting Report
Aatu Raty holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Raty on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Raty wins 59.8% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Raty 58.7% vs Larkin 52.7% (+6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 52.9%
Defensive zone
Raty 82.9%
Neutral zone
Raty 67.6%
Result
Aatu Raty favored at 59.0%
59.0%
41.0%
Raty
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Raty
Larkin
Last 6: Raty 4-2 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Raty
3
1
Raty
Larkin
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Raty
Larkin
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Raty
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
58.5% (866)
51.7% (9,019)
+6.8%
Power Play
72.2% (36)
58.5% (2,125)
+13.7%
Penalty Kill
63.2% (106)
50.2% (1,122)
+13.0%
On power play, Raty has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Raty is 59.8% vs left-shot opponents (666).
Raty shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Home / Away
Raty
Larkin
Home
59.6% (547)
54.0% (6,238)
Away
59.4% (461)
51.3% (6,028)
By Period
Raty
Larkin
P1
59.5%
52.7%
P2
62.8%
53.1%
P3
56.6%
52.1%
OT
53.3%
58.4%
Final 5 min
62.0%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Raty
68.0%▲
63.5%
59.5%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 13:13 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 12:44 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 02:27 | Offensive | Aatu Raty |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 15:17 | Offensive | Aatu Raty |
| Dec 1, 2024 | 1 | 19:59 | Offensive | Aatu Raty |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 2 | 10:04 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |