Scouting Report
Aatu Raty holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Raty on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Raty wins 59.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Raty 58.7% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Raty leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 54.9%
Defensive zone
Raty 68.0%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 50.3%
Result
Aatu Raty favored at 56.0%
56.0%
44.0%
Raty
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
5
(13 meetings)
8
5
Raty
O'Reilly
Last 10: Raty 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
4
Raty
O'Reilly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Raty
5
1
Raty
O'Reilly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Raty
1
0
Raty
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Raty
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
58.5% (866)
56.2% (15,260)
+2.3%
Power Play
72.2% (36)
58.8% (3,445)
+13.4%
Penalty Kill
63.2% (106)
51.4% (2,811)
+11.8%
On power play, Raty has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Raty is 59.8% vs left-shot opponents (666).
Raty shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Raty
O'Reilly
Home
59.6% (547)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
59.4% (461)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Raty
O'Reilly
P1
59.5%
55.6%
P2
62.8%
57.0%
P3
56.6%
55.1%
OT
53.3%
62.2%
Final 5 min
62.0%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Raty
68.0%▲
63.5%
59.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | OT | 02:55 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 16:10 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 15:32 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 10:14 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 08:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3 | 18:21 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3 | 15:47 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 1 | 14:45 | Neutral | Aatu Raty |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 19:50 | Offensive | Aatu Raty |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 10:23 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 07:04 | Offensive | Aatu Raty |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 01:23 | Defensive | Aatu Raty |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 3 | 17:46 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |