Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.0% vs 50.6%). Look for Fantilli on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 50.0% vs Nelson 50.6% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 68.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 76.4%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 50.7%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 60.4%
60.4%
39.6%
Fantilli
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Fantilli
Nelson
Last 9: Fantilli 5-4 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
4
1
Fantilli
Nelson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
3
Fantilli
Nelson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (842)
50.7% (879)
-1.1%
Power Play
52.5% (99)
58.6% (162)
-6.1%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (11)
43.4% (198)
+11.1%
On penalty kill, Fantilli has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Fantilli is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (622).
Fantilli shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Nelson
Home
50.8% (472)
52.3% (621)
Away
49.2% (480)
48.9% (618)
By Period
Fantilli
Nelson
P1
47.8%
48.4%
P2
52.7%
53.5%
P3
50.0%
50.3%
OT
30.0%
41.2%
Final 5 min
51.1%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
50.0%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 16:36 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 13:14 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 13:10 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 13:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 19:01 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 18:53 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 16:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 19:56 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 01:44 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |