Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings). Fantilli wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 42.0% vs Nelson 51.9% (-10.9%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 10-10 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 50.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 57.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.2%
46.8%
53.2%
Fantilli
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
10
(20 meetings)
10
10
Fantilli
Nelson
Last 10: Fantilli 5-5 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
4
3
Fantilli
Nelson
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
3
2
Fantilli
Nelson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
5
Fantilli
Nelson
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (934)
51.3% (1,002)
-10.6%
Power Play
52.1% (73)
58.7% (126)
-6.6%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (12)
51.9% (81)
-35.2%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +35.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Fantilli is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (687).
Fantilli shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Nelson
Home
44.1% (488)
52.5% (590)
Away
38.6% (531)
51.7% (619)
By Period
Fantilli
Nelson
P1
42.0%
50.5%
P2
43.0%
54.4%
P3
39.3%
51.4%
OT
11.1%
47.4%
Final 5 min
38.3%
57.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
58.0%▲
51.0%
41.2%
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | 04:01 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 12:39 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 07:56 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 2 | 07:39 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 06:35 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 03:59 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 3, 2025 | 1 | 01:12 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 14:27 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 18:53 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 14:51 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 17:57 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 14:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 11:03 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 10:51 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 1 | 07:24 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 3 | 05:43 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2 | 17:20 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2 | 10:12 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |