Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Fantilli wins 45.4% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 44.9% vs Nelson 45.8% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 54.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 62.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.8%
46.2%
53.8%
Fantilli
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Fantilli
Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Fantilli
Nelson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Fantilli
Nelson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fantilli
2
0
Fantilli
Nelson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (358)
46.1% (735)
-2.8%
Power Play
50.0% (32)
34.5% (29)
+15.5%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (2)
30.4% (23)
-30.4%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +30.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Fantilli is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (260).
Fantilli shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Nelson
Home
46.8% (218)
48.7% (419)
Away
39.7% (174)
41.3% (368)
By Period
Fantilli
Nelson
P1
40.3%
44.6%
P2
38.1%
47.3%
P3
54.1%
43.0%
OT
30.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
38.9%
39.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
58.0%▲
51.0%
43.6%
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 05:37 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 3 | 00:44 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 1 | 15:45 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 1 | 15:37 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |