Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 50.6% vs Nelson 49.6% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 70.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 64.3%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 56.6%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 64.2%
64.2%
35.8%
Fantilli
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Fantilli
Nelson
Last 9: Fantilli 5-4 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
4
1
Fantilli
Nelson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
3
Fantilli
Nelson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (638)
50.0% (694)
+0.0%
Power Play
56.9% (58)
56.3% (112)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (10)
42.0% (143)
+18.0%
On penalty kill, Fantilli has a +18.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Fantilli is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (465).
Fantilli shoots left. Nelson is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Nelson
Home
53.0% (334)
50.4% (472)
Away
48.7% (372)
48.6% (477)
By Period
Fantilli
Nelson
P1
48.7%
47.2%
P2
53.9%
53.4%
P3
49.8%
47.8%
OT
28.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
47.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
58.0%▲
51.0%
50.7%
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 16:36 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 13:14 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 13:10 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 13:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 19:01 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 18:53 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 16:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 19:56 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 01:44 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |