Scouting Report
Dawson Mercer holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Fantilli wins 40.2% vs right-shot opponents — Mercer shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 44.9% vs Mercer 46.3% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 51.3%
Defensive zone
Mercer 54.9%
Neutral zone
Mercer 53.8%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Fantilli
Mercer
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Fantilli
Mercer
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
0
1
Fantilli
Mercer
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (358)
43.6% (241)
-0.3%
Power Play
50.0% (32)
50.0% (14)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (2)
70.0% (10)
-70.0%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +70.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Fantilli is 40.2% vs right-shot opponents (132).
Fantilli shoots left. Mercer is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (201).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Mercer
Home
46.8% (218)
41.7% (120)
Away
39.7% (174)
47.6% (145)
By Period
Fantilli
Mercer
P1
40.3%
44.6%
P2
38.1%
45.4%
P3
54.1%
45.2%
OT
30.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
38.9%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
43.6%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 17:19 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |