Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (41.2% vs 40.5%). Fantilli wins 42.2% vs right-shot opponents — Mercer shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 42.0% vs Mercer 43.3% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 58.9%
Defensive zone
Mercer 50.9%
Neutral zone
Mercer 54.6%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 58.9%
58.9%
41.1%
Fantilli
Mercer
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Fantilli
Mercer
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
2
0
Fantilli
Mercer
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (934)
41.0% (212)
-0.3%
Power Play
52.1% (73)
35.7% (14)
+16.4%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (12)
36.4% (11)
-19.7%
On penalty kill, Mercer has a +19.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Fantilli is 42.2% vs right-shot opponents (332).
Fantilli shoots left. Mercer is 40.2% vs left-shot opponents (179).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Mercer
Home
44.1% (488)
45.2% (126)
Away
38.6% (531)
35.1% (111)
By Period
Fantilli
Mercer
P1
42.0%
34.5%
P2
43.0%
43.4%
P3
39.3%
45.8%
OT
11.1%
0.0%
Final 5 min
38.3%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
41.2%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
40.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2025 | 3 | 01:49 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 04:23 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |