Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Fantilli wins 46.7% vs right-shot opponents — Mercer shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.4% vs Mercer 39.9% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 83.1%
Defensive zone
Fantilli 71.2%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 70.2%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 76.0%
76.0%
24.0%
Fantilli
Mercer
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Fantilli
Mercer
Last 9: Fantilli 6-3 Mercer
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
3
1
Fantilli
Mercer
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fantilli
3
2
Fantilli
Mercer
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,134)
39.1% (1,412)
+5.6%
Power Play
52.0% (204)
41.1% (90)
+10.9%
Penalty Kill
32.0% (25)
40.0% (45)
-8.0%
On power play, Fantilli has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Fantilli is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (794).
Fantilli shoots left. Mercer is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,099).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Mercer
Home
47.3% (1,178)
40.0% (755)
Away
43.0% (1,185)
38.5% (792)
By Period
Fantilli
Mercer
P1
44.0%
38.2%
P2
46.2%
39.2%
P3
45.9%
41.1%
OT
24.1%
0.0%
Final 5 min
43.9%
39.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
45.2%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 14:59 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 18:45 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 18:29 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 3 | 13:31 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 3 | 04:38 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 1 | 16:46 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Mar 17, 2025 | 3 | 01:49 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 04:23 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 17:19 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |