Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +17.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Fantilli wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 42.0% vs Tavares 57.7% (-17.1%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 71.6%
Defensive zone
Fantilli 71.6%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 71.7%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 71.7%
71.7%
28.3%
Fantilli
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Fantilli
Tavares
Last 10: Fantilli 4-6 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
3
Fantilli
Tavares
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
3
1
Fantilli
Tavares
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
4
Fantilli
Tavares
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (934)
57.7% (998)
-17.0%
Power Play
52.1% (73)
60.5% (271)
-8.4%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (12)
56.4% (39)
-39.7%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +39.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Fantilli is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (687).
Fantilli shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Tavares
Home
44.1% (488)
59.7% (610)
Away
38.6% (531)
57.0% (698)
By Period
Fantilli
Tavares
P1
42.0%
57.2%
P2
43.0%
58.5%
P3
39.3%
59.4%
OT
11.1%
46.7%
Final 5 min
38.3%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
41.2%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 01:11 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 07:21 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 04:10 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 00:39 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 13:03 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 08:38 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 12:05 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 09:14 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 08:46 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 06:11 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 03:08 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 07:25 | Offensive | John Tavares |