Scouting Report
Mavrik Bourque holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Bourque on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Fantilli wins 42.2% vs right-shot opponents — Bourque shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 42.0% vs Bourque 47.1% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 73.9%
Defensive zone
Bourque 73.7%
Neutral zone
Bourque 51.1%
Result
Mavrik Bourque favored at 54.1%
45.9%
54.1%
Fantilli
Bourque
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Fantilli
Bourque
Last 6: Fantilli 3-3 Bourque
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
2
0
Fantilli
Bourque
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bourque
1
2
Fantilli
Bourque
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bourque
0
1
Fantilli
Bourque
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Bourque
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (934)
46.7% (321)
-6.0%
Power Play
52.1% (73)
33.3% (6)
+18.8%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (12)
42.9% (21)
-26.2%
On penalty kill, Bourque has a +26.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bourque shoots right. Fantilli is 42.2% vs right-shot opponents (332).
Fantilli shoots left. Bourque is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (269).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Bourque
Home
44.1% (488)
51.0% (157)
Away
38.6% (531)
42.4% (191)
By Period
Fantilli
Bourque
P1
42.0%
44.2%
P2
43.0%
44.7%
P3
39.3%
49.6%
OT
11.1%
0.0%
Final 5 min
38.3%
59.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
41.2%
Bourque
50.0%▲
46.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 08:18 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 14:58 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 3 | 09:48 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 19:16 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 03:44 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 1 | 07:47 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |