Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Fantilli wins 53.9% vs right-shot opponents — Bourque shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 50.0% vs Bourque 46.7% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 78.7%
Defensive zone
Bourque 61.6%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 63.9%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 78.7%
78.7%
21.3%
Fantilli
Bourque
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Fantilli
Bourque
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
2
1
Fantilli
Bourque
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Bourque
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (842)
47.0% (181)
+2.6%
Power Play
52.5% (99)
25.0% (16)
+27.5%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (11)
42.9% (7)
+11.6%
On power play, Fantilli has a +27.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bourque shoots right. Fantilli is 53.9% vs right-shot opponents (330).
Fantilli shoots left. Bourque is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (148).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Bourque
Home
50.8% (472)
41.9% (105)
Away
49.2% (480)
48.5% (99)
By Period
Fantilli
Bourque
P1
47.8%
39.7%
P2
52.7%
39.3%
P3
50.0%
52.9%
Final 5 min
51.1%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
50.0%
Bourque
50.0%▲
46.0%
45.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 10:04 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 18:35 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 02:48 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |