Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Fantilli wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Bourque shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 50.6% vs Bourque 46.4% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 84.4%
Defensive zone
Bourque 55.8%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 65.4%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 84.4%
84.4%
15.6%
Fantilli
Bourque
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Fantilli
Bourque
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
2
1
Fantilli
Bourque
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Bourque
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (638)
46.1% (167)
+3.9%
Power Play
56.9% (58)
12.5% (8)
+44.4%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (10)
40.0% (5)
+20.0%
On power play, Fantilli has a +44.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bourque shoots right. Fantilli is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (241).
Fantilli shoots left. Bourque is 39.4% vs left-shot opponents (127).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Bourque
Home
53.0% (334)
40.0% (85)
Away
48.7% (372)
48.4% (95)
By Period
Fantilli
Bourque
P1
48.7%
40.4%
P2
53.9%
38.0%
P3
49.8%
52.1%
Final 5 min
54.1%
40.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
58.0%▲
51.0%
50.7%
Bourque
48.0%▲
43.5%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 10:04 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 18:35 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 02:48 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |