Adam Fantilli vs Mavrik Bourque
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.2% vs 45.7%). Look for Fantilli on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Fantilli wins 46.7% vs right-shot opponents — Bourque shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.4% vs Bourque 46.4% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 74.7%
Defensive zone
Bourque 76.7%
Neutral zone
Bourque 53.0%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
Fantilli
Bourque
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Fantilli
Bourque
Last 9: Fantilli 5-4 Bourque
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
4
1
Fantilli
Bourque
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bourque
1
2
Fantilli
Bourque
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bourque
0
1
Fantilli
Bourque
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Bourque
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,134)
46.7% (508)
-2.0%
Power Play
52.0% (204)
27.3% (22)
+24.7%
Penalty Kill
32.0% (25)
42.9% (28)
-10.9%
On power play, Fantilli has a +24.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bourque shoots right. Fantilli is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (794).
Fantilli shoots left. Bourque is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (421).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Bourque
Home
47.3% (1,178)
47.3% (262)
Away
43.0% (1,185)
44.3% (296)
By Period
Fantilli
Bourque
P1
44.0%
42.4%
P2
46.2%
42.9%
P3
45.9%
50.7%
OT
24.1%
0.0%
Final 5 min
43.9%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
45.2%
Bourque
50.0%▲
46.0%
45.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 10:04 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 18:35 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 02:48 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 08:18 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 14:58 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 3 | 09:48 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 19:16 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 03:44 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 1 | 07:47 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |