Adam Fantilli vs Mavrik Bourque
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.8% vs 45.5%). Look for Fantilli on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Fantilli wins 45.5% vs right-shot opponents — Bourque shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.1% vs Bourque 46.2% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 75.7%
Defensive zone
Bourque 73.4%
Neutral zone
Bourque 52.6%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 56.2%
56.2%
43.8%
Fantilli
Bourque
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Fantilli
Bourque
Last 9: Fantilli 5-4 Bourque
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
4
1
Fantilli
Bourque
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bourque
1
2
Fantilli
Bourque
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bourque
0
1
Fantilli
Bourque
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Bourque
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (1,930)
46.4% (494)
-2.2%
Power Play
53.4% (163)
21.4% (14)
+32.0%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (24)
42.3% (26)
-9.0%
On power play, Fantilli has a +32.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bourque shoots right. Fantilli is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (705).
Fantilli shoots left. Bourque is 43.8% vs left-shot opponents (400).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Bourque
Home
47.5% (1,040)
47.1% (242)
Away
42.2% (1,077)
44.2% (292)
By Period
Fantilli
Bourque
P1
43.9%
42.7%
P2
45.9%
42.7%
P3
45.4%
50.2%
OT
23.1%
0.0%
Final 5 min
43.9%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
58.0%▲
51.0%
44.8%
Bourque
48.0%▲
43.5%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 10:04 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 18:35 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 02:48 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 08:18 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 14:58 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 3 | 09:48 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 19:16 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 2 | 03:44 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Feb 2, 2025 | 1 | 07:47 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |