Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 50.0% vs Paul 53.6% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 83.4%
Defensive zone
Fantilli 60.6%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 73.2%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 72.3%
72.3%
27.7%
Fantilli
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Fantilli
Paul
Last 5: Fantilli 1-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Fantilli
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Fantilli
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Fantilli
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (826)
53.8% (318)
-4.2%
Power Play
52.0% (98)
61.4% (57)
-9.4%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (11)
50.0% (32)
+4.5%
On power play, Paul has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Fantilli is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (615).
Fantilli shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (297).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Paul
Home
50.8% (472)
54.6% (183)
Away
49.0% (463)
54.5% (224)
By Period
Fantilli
Paul
P1
47.7%
57.0%
P2
52.7%
56.2%
P3
49.8%
51.7%
OT
30.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
51.2%
60.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
48.0%▬
47.0%
49.9%
Paul
58.0%▲
54.0%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 05:52 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 15:32 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 15:00 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 04:42 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 04:31 | Defensive | Nick Paul |