Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.4% vs Paul 52.2% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 69.2%
Defensive zone
Paul 77.1%
Neutral zone
Paul 52.4%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 56.1%
43.9%
56.1%
Fantilli
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Fantilli
Paul
Last 10: Fantilli 5-5 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
3
1
Fantilli
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
2
3
Fantilli
Paul
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Fantilli
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,134)
52.5% (3,796)
-7.8%
Power Play
52.0% (204)
56.5% (480)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
32.0% (25)
46.7% (574)
-14.7%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +14.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Fantilli is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,569).
Fantilli shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,067).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Paul
Home
47.3% (1,178)
52.7% (2,412)
Away
43.0% (1,185)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Fantilli
Paul
P1
44.0%
53.9%
P2
46.2%
51.0%
P3
45.9%
52.0%
OT
24.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
43.9%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
45.2%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 05:52 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 15:32 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 15:00 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 04:42 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 04:31 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 04:07 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 16:57 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 04:29 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 04:14 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 01:21 | Defensive | Nick Paul |