Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Fantilli wins 45.4% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 44.9% vs Paul 53.9% (-10.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 71.5%
Defensive zone
Paul 92.0%
Neutral zone
Paul 79.0%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 83.8%
16.2%
83.8%
Fantilli
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Fantilli
Paul
Last 5: Fantilli 4-1 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
2
0
Fantilli
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
2
1
Fantilli
Paul
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (358)
53.1% (710)
-9.8%
Power Play
50.0% (32)
57.3% (199)
-7.3%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (2)
58.0% (69)
-58.0%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +58.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Fantilli is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (260).
Fantilli shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Paul
Home
46.8% (218)
56.0% (466)
Away
39.7% (174)
52.7% (512)
By Period
Fantilli
Paul
P1
40.3%
57.2%
P2
38.1%
54.9%
P3
54.1%
51.5%
OT
30.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
38.9%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
43.6%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 04:07 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 16:57 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 04:29 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 04:14 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 01:21 | Defensive | Nick Paul |