Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 50.0% vs Cates 45.5% (+5.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 66.4%
Defensive zone
Cates 64.6%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 50.1%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 58.2%
58.2%
41.8%
Fantilli
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Fantilli
Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Fantilli
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Fantilli
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (842)
45.4% (712)
+4.2%
Power Play
52.5% (99)
42.2% (102)
+10.3%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (11)
44.7% (47)
+9.8%
On power play, Fantilli has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Fantilli is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (622).
Fantilli shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Cates
Home
50.8% (472)
46.3% (423)
Away
49.2% (480)
43.6% (438)
By Period
Fantilli
Cates
P1
47.8%
46.3%
P2
52.7%
47.1%
P3
50.0%
42.1%
OT
30.0%
18.2%
Final 5 min
51.1%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
50.0%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 11:18 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 06:42 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 06:33 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |