Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (43.6% vs 44.5%). Fantilli wins 45.4% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 44.9% vs Cates 45.8% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 67.5%
Defensive zone
Cates 70.8%
Neutral zone
Cates 54.3%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 67.5%
67.5%
32.5%
Fantilli
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Fantilli
Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Fantilli
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (358)
44.3% (271)
-1.0%
Power Play
50.0% (32)
77.8% (18)
-27.8%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (2)
31.7% (41)
-31.7%
On penalty kill, Cates has a +31.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Fantilli is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (260).
Fantilli shoots left. Cates is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (224).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Cates
Home
46.8% (218)
52.0% (148)
Away
39.7% (174)
38.5% (182)
By Period
Fantilli
Cates
P1
40.3%
42.7%
P2
38.1%
42.9%
P3
54.1%
48.5%
Final 5 min
38.9%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
43.6%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2023 | 2 | 19:04 | Offensive | Noah Cates |