Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.4% vs Cates 43.2% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 63.4%
Defensive zone
Cates 82.5%
Neutral zone
Cates 61.8%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 55.0%
45.0%
55.0%
Fantilli
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
9
(13 meetings)
4
9
Fantilli
Cates
Last 10: Fantilli 4-6 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Fantilli
Cates
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
3
Fantilli
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
1
3
Fantilli
Cates
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,134)
44.1% (2,742)
+0.6%
Power Play
52.0% (204)
43.0% (242)
+9.0%
Penalty Kill
32.0% (25)
34.9% (373)
-2.9%
On power play, Fantilli has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Fantilli is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,569).
Fantilli shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,284).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Cates
Home
47.3% (1,178)
43.8% (1,663)
Away
43.0% (1,185)
42.1% (1,694)
By Period
Fantilli
Cates
P1
44.0%
44.5%
P2
46.2%
43.5%
P3
45.9%
41.2%
OT
24.1%
29.4%
Final 5 min
43.9%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
45.2%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 11:18 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 06:42 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 06:33 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 08:13 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 11:39 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 08:52 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 09:48 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 09:44 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 09:37 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 1 | 15:47 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 2 | 19:04 | Offensive | Noah Cates |