Scouting Report
Noah Cates holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Fantilli wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 42.0% vs Cates 45.1% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 81.5%
Defensive zone
Cates 56.7%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 55.4%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 60.7%
60.7%
39.3%
Fantilli
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Fantilli
Cates
Last 7: Fantilli 2-5 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
2
1
Fantilli
Cates
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
3
Fantilli
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Fantilli
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (934)
46.7% (912)
-6.0%
Power Play
52.1% (73)
33.9% (56)
+18.2%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (12)
35.0% (137)
-18.3%
On penalty kill, Cates has a +18.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Fantilli is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (687).
Fantilli shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Cates
Home
44.1% (488)
46.1% (521)
Away
38.6% (531)
43.3% (584)
By Period
Fantilli
Cates
P1
42.0%
48.0%
P2
43.0%
42.3%
P3
39.3%
44.3%
OT
11.1%
31.3%
Final 5 min
38.3%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
41.2%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 08:13 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 11:39 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 08:52 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 09:48 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 09:44 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 09:37 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 1 | 15:47 | Neutral | Noah Cates |