Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Kelly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.4% vs Kelly 41.8% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 73.4%
Defensive zone
Kelly 85.2%
Neutral zone
Kelly 64.0%
Result
Parker Kelly favored at 62.0%
38.0%
62.0%
Fantilli
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Fantilli
Kelly
Last 8: Fantilli 2-6 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
0
1
Fantilli
Kelly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
0
1
Fantilli
Kelly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
4
Fantilli
Kelly
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,134)
41.9% (756)
+2.8%
Power Play
52.0% (204)
0.0% (3)
+52.0%
Penalty Kill
32.0% (25)
37.2% (172)
-5.2%
On power play, Fantilli has a +52.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Fantilli is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,569).
Fantilli shoots left. Kelly is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (626).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Kelly
Home
47.3% (1,178)
42.5% (475)
Away
43.0% (1,185)
39.3% (456)
By Period
Fantilli
Kelly
P1
44.0%
42.4%
P2
46.2%
44.7%
P3
45.9%
35.7%
OT
24.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
43.9%
35.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
45.2%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
40.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 16:15 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 19:43 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 19:35 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 04:33 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 01:56 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 19:57 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 19:52 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 01:26 | Offensive | Parker Kelly |