Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.4% vs Zacha 49.1% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Fantilli leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 55.2%
Defensive zone
Zacha 73.7%
Neutral zone
Zacha 59.2%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 59.2%
40.8%
59.2%
Fantilli
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
7
(15 meetings)
8
7
Fantilli
Zacha
Last 10: Fantilli 5-5 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
3
1
Fantilli
Zacha
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
3
1
Fantilli
Zacha
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
2
5
Fantilli
Zacha
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,134)
48.9% (5,102)
-4.2%
Power Play
52.0% (204)
55.6% (804)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
32.0% (25)
42.2% (555)
-10.2%
On penalty kill, Zacha has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Fantilli is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,569).
Fantilli shoots left. Zacha is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,921).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Zacha
Home
47.3% (1,178)
49.7% (3,353)
Away
43.0% (1,185)
48.5% (3,108)
By Period
Fantilli
Zacha
P1
44.0%
49.9%
P2
46.2%
49.2%
P3
45.9%
48.1%
OT
24.1%
53.1%
Final 5 min
43.9%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
45.2%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 13:21 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 17:46 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 17:41 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 14:04 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 15:51 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 3 | 07:48 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 1 | 10:24 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 28, 2024 | 1 | 07:29 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 1 | 19:06 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 1 | 12:53 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 1 | 05:17 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 00:55 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 1 | 10:50 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 3 | 10:18 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 3 | 04:51 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |