Scouting Report
Adam Fantilli holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Fantilli wins 46.7% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.4% vs Thompson 42.8% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Thompson leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 51.0%
Defensive zone
Thompson 73.5%
Neutral zone
Thompson 60.7%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 59.9%
40.1%
59.9%
Fantilli
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Fantilli
Thompson
Last 9: Fantilli 4-5 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
3
Fantilli
Thompson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
2
Fantilli
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fantilli
2
1
Fantilli
Thompson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,134)
42.9% (3,521)
+1.8%
Power Play
52.0% (204)
46.8% (372)
+5.2%
Penalty Kill
32.0% (25)
33.6% (265)
-1.6%
On power play, Fantilli has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Fantilli is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (794).
Fantilli shoots left. Thompson is 40.9% vs left-shot opponents (3,011).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Thompson
Home
47.3% (1,178)
44.9% (2,115)
Away
43.0% (1,185)
40.3% (2,043)
By Period
Fantilli
Thompson
P1
44.0%
44.5%
P2
46.2%
43.6%
P3
45.9%
40.2%
OT
24.1%
36.4%
Final 5 min
43.9%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
45.2%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2024 | 3 | 02:26 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 00:07 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 3 | 11:52 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 3 | 04:02 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 13:40 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 07:55 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 01:10 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 00:55 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 1 | 00:30 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |