Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (43.6% vs 43.3%). Look for Fantilli on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Fantilli wins 40.2% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 44.9% vs Thompson 44.0% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 66.8%
Defensive zone
Thompson 70.3%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 52.0%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
Fantilli
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Fantilli
Thompson
Last 7: Fantilli 4-3 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Fantilli
Thompson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Fantilli
Thompson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fantilli
2
1
Fantilli
Thompson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (358)
44.6% (709)
-1.3%
Power Play
50.0% (32)
41.5% (53)
+8.5%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (2)
35.1% (97)
-35.1%
On penalty kill, Thompson has a +35.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Fantilli is 40.2% vs right-shot opponents (132).
Fantilli shoots left. Thompson is 39.9% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Thompson
Home
46.8% (218)
45.5% (426)
Away
39.7% (174)
41.1% (433)
By Period
Fantilli
Thompson
P1
40.3%
48.5%
P2
38.1%
43.8%
P3
54.1%
38.1%
OT
30.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
38.9%
37.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
43.6%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
43.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2023 | 3 | 11:52 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 3 | 04:02 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 13:40 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 07:55 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 01:10 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 00:55 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 1 | 00:30 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |