Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 50.0% vs Hertl 57.2% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 74.6%
Defensive zone
Fantilli 73.8%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 71.2%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 72.4%
72.4%
27.6%
Fantilli
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
Fantilli
Hertl
Last 10: Fantilli 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Fantilli
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Fantilli
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
4
Fantilli
Hertl
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (842)
58.1% (823)
-8.5%
Power Play
52.5% (99)
56.2% (265)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (11)
62.9% (35)
-8.4%
On even strength, Hertl has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Fantilli is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (622).
Fantilli shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Hertl
Home
50.8% (472)
59.7% (561)
Away
49.2% (480)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Fantilli
Hertl
P1
47.8%
51.6%
P2
52.7%
63.8%
P3
50.0%
58.6%
OT
30.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
51.1%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
50.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 10:38 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 10:18 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 00:14 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 19:59 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 12:29 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 08:36 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 10:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 07:02 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |