Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Fantilli wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.4% vs Hertl 54.2% (-9.0%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 79.5%
Defensive zone
Fantilli 80.3%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 80.9%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 80.5%
80.5%
19.5%
Fantilli
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
10
(14 meetings)
4
10
Fantilli
Hertl
Last 10: Fantilli 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Fantilli
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Fantilli
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
6
Fantilli
Hertl
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,134)
53.8% (8,268)
-9.1%
Power Play
52.0% (204)
59.3% (1,975)
-7.3%
Penalty Kill
32.0% (25)
46.3% (806)
-14.3%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Fantilli is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,569).
Fantilli shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Hertl
Home
47.3% (1,178)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
43.0% (1,185)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Fantilli
Hertl
P1
44.0%
53.6%
P2
46.2%
54.1%
P3
45.9%
55.3%
OT
24.1%
46.5%
Final 5 min
43.9%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
45.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 10:38 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 10:18 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 00:14 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 19:59 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 12:29 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 08:36 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 10:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 07:02 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 3 | 12:31 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 10:57 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 04:29 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |