Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +14.7% FO% edge overall. Fantilli wins 40.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 42.0% vs Hertl 55.4% (-14.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 58.0%
Defensive zone
Fantilli 56.5%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 55.5%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 56.3%
56.3%
43.7%
Fantilli
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Fantilli
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
1
0
Fantilli
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Fantilli
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (934)
54.1% (717)
-13.4%
Power Play
52.1% (73)
61.9% (210)
-9.8%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (12)
58.1% (31)
-41.4%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +41.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Fantilli is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (687).
Fantilli shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Hertl
Home
44.1% (488)
58.1% (492)
Away
38.6% (531)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Fantilli
Hertl
P1
42.0%
57.1%
P2
43.0%
54.0%
P3
39.3%
56.6%
OT
11.1%
66.7%
Final 5 min
38.3%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
41.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2025 | 3 | 12:31 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 10:57 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 04:29 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |