Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +10.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Gaudette wins 43.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudette 48.5% vs Hertl 57.1% (-10.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gaudette 52.7%
Defensive zone
Gaudette 85.9%
Neutral zone
Gaudette 71.8%
Result
Adam Gaudette favored at 61.4%
61.4%
38.6%
Gaudette
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Gaudette
Hertl
Last 6: Gaudette 1-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Gaudette
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaudette
1
0
Gaudette
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Gaudette
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudette
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.7% (186)
58.0% (816)
-12.3%
Power Play
59.4% (32)
56.5% (260)
+2.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (6)
62.9% (35)
-12.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Gaudette is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (155).
Gaudette shoots right. Hertl is 59.5% vs right-shot opponents (422).
Home / Away
Gaudette
Hertl
Home
48.4% (91)
59.7% (561)
Away
47.4% (133)
55.8% (550)
By Period
Gaudette
Hertl
P1
45.2%
51.4%
P2
51.9%
64.1%
P3
45.9%
58.5%
Final 5 min
40.0%
58.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudette
46.0%▼
48.5%
47.8%
Hertl
54.0%▼
58.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 11:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 19:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 18:51 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 08:13 | Defensive | Adam Gaudette |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 13:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 07:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |