Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Gaudette wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudette 44.5% vs Hertl 54.2% (-10.1%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 13-6 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Gaudette 78.3%
Defensive zone
Gaudette 87.5%
Neutral zone
Gaudette 83.5%
Result
Adam Gaudette favored at 82.1%
82.1%
17.9%
Gaudette
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
13
(19 meetings)
6
13
Gaudette
Hertl
Last 10: Gaudette 2-8 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
7
Gaudette
Hertl
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Gaudette
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaudette
4
3
Gaudette
Hertl
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudette
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
43.7% (1,468)
53.8% (8,268)
-10.1%
Power Play
47.5% (183)
59.3% (1,975)
-11.8%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (15)
46.3% (806)
+0.4%
On power play, Hertl has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Gaudette is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,185).
Gaudette shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Gaudette
Hertl
Home
45.9% (912)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
41.9% (754)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Gaudette
Hertl
P1
44.4%
53.6%
P2
46.5%
54.1%
P3
41.1%
55.3%
OT
100.0%
46.5%
Final 5 min
46.1%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudette
46.0%▼
48.5%
44.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 11:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 19:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 18:51 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 08:13 | Defensive | Adam Gaudette |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 13:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 07:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 1 | 16:08 | Offensive | Adam Gaudette |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 2 | 18:03 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 1 | 09:32 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 1 | 06:00 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 1 | 13:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 1 | 09:58 | Neutral | Adam Gaudette |
| Apr 2, 2019 | 3 | 06:45 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 2, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Gaudette |
| Apr 2, 2019 | 2 | 14:30 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 2, 2019 | 2 | 03:33 | Neutral | Adam Gaudette |
| Apr 2, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Gaudette |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 3 | 14:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 3 | 14:07 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |