Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 51.0% vs Pavelski 53.0% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 53.8%
Defensive zone
Henrique 52.8%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 52.1%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 52.1%
47.9%
52.1%
Henrique
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Henrique
Pavelski
Last 6: Henrique 3-3 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
2
Henrique
Pavelski
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
1
0
Henrique
Pavelski
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Henrique
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (270)
52.3% (560)
-0.4%
Power Play
58.5% (200)
57.5% (113)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (199)
62.5% (16)
-19.8%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +19.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Henrique is 49.1% vs right-shot opponents (218).
Henrique shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Home / Away
Henrique
Pavelski
Home
53.1% (339)
54.2% (360)
Away
49.1% (330)
52.6% (329)
By Period
Henrique
Pavelski
P1
48.5%
54.5%
P2
48.6%
56.7%
P3
54.2%
50.8%
OT
70.6%
30.8%
Final 5 min
51.9%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
51.1%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2023 | 2 | 19:19 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 6, 2023 | 1 | 06:34 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 4, 2023 | 3 | 18:05 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 4, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 4, 2023 | 2 | 05:53 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 1 | 18:06 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |