Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 25 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 50.6% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 38-27 in 65 meetings
Offensive zone
Henrique 69.5%
Defensive zone
Henrique 71.0%
Neutral zone
Henrique 69.4%
Result
Adam Henrique favored at 70.0%
70.0%
30.0%
Henrique
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
27
-
38
(65 meetings)
27
38
Henrique
Pavelski
Last 10: Henrique 6-4 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
9
16
Henrique
Pavelski
25 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
13
11
Henrique
Pavelski
24 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
5
11
Henrique
Pavelski
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (9,527)
53.6% (8,791)
-2.8%
Power Play
54.5% (1,762)
58.2% (2,122)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (1,822)
50.9% (1,138)
-4.7%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Henrique is 49.7% vs right-shot opponents (4,629).
Henrique shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Henrique
Pavelski
Home
52.5% (6,418)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
48.8% (6,716)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Henrique
Pavelski
P1
50.6%
53.5%
P2
51.4%
55.2%
P3
50.2%
53.9%
OT
40.6%
52.3%
Final 5 min
50.4%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
50.6%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2024 | 3 | 13:07 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 3 | 01:16 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 3 | 01:04 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 2 | 04:08 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Feb 6, 2023 | 2 | 19:19 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 6, 2023 | 1 | 06:34 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 4, 2023 | 3 | 18:05 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 4, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 4, 2023 | 2 | 05:53 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 1 | 18:06 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 3 | 15:39 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 1 | 12:53 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 3 | 19:49 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 3 | 17:59 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 3 | 15:51 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 31, 2022 | 1 | 19:24 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 9, 2020 | 2 | 02:22 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 24, 2019 | 3 | 13:34 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Oct 24, 2019 | 3 | 03:24 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 27, 2018 | 3 | 17:23 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |