Scouting Report
Adam Henrique holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Henrique on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Henrique wins 56.4% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.0% vs Pavelski 50.9% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 51.7%
Defensive zone
Henrique 68.5%
Neutral zone
Henrique 61.9%
Result
Adam Henrique favored at 68.5%
68.5%
31.5%
Henrique
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Henrique
Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
3
1
Henrique
Pavelski
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (725)
51.5% (594)
+3.9%
Power Play
50.6% (156)
51.7% (87)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
47.5% (202)
28.6% (14)
+18.9%
On penalty kill, Henrique has a +18.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Henrique is 56.4% vs right-shot opponents (390).
Henrique shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Home / Away
Henrique
Pavelski
Home
56.4% (553)
53.1% (339)
Away
50.0% (530)
49.2% (356)
By Period
Henrique
Pavelski
P1
51.7%
53.8%
P2
55.5%
47.8%
P3
52.5%
50.2%
OT
66.7%
71.4%
Final 5 min
55.1%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
53.3%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2024 | 3 | 13:07 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 3 | 01:16 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 3 | 01:04 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 2 | 04:08 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |