Scouting Report
Adam Henrique holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Henrique on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Henrique wins 56.4% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.0% vs Carpenter 48.2% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Henrique 54.9%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 67.1%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 54.4%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 51.4%
48.6%
51.4%
Henrique
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Henrique
Carpenter
Last 5: Henrique 2-3 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
2
1
Henrique
Carpenter
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
1
Henrique
Carpenter
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
1
Henrique
Carpenter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (725)
48.8% (404)
+6.6%
Power Play
50.6% (156)
100.0% (1)
-49.4%
Penalty Kill
47.5% (202)
43.6% (101)
+3.9%
On power play, Carpenter has a +49.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Henrique is 56.4% vs right-shot opponents (390).
Henrique shoots left. Carpenter is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (366).
Home / Away
Henrique
Carpenter
Home
56.4% (553)
48.9% (274)
Away
50.0% (530)
46.6% (232)
By Period
Henrique
Carpenter
P1
51.7%
51.9%
P2
55.5%
49.4%
P3
52.5%
41.8%
OT
66.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
55.1%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
53.3%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 19:44 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 19:36 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 04:51 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 31, 2024 | 1 | 13:09 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 13:48 | Offensive | Adam Henrique |