Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Henrique wins 56.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Henrique 53.0% vs Stamkos 55.2% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Henrique 51.9%
Defensive zone
Henrique 78.2%
Neutral zone
Henrique 65.1%
Result
Adam Henrique favored at 63.4%
63.4%
36.6%
Henrique
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Henrique
Stamkos
Last 8: Henrique 3-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
3
Henrique
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Henrique
2
0
Henrique
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
2
Henrique
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Henrique
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (725)
55.9% (499)
-0.5%
Power Play
50.6% (156)
56.3% (126)
-5.7%
Penalty Kill
47.5% (202)
58.3% (12)
-10.8%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Henrique is 56.4% vs right-shot opponents (390).
Henrique shoots left. Stamkos is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (486).
Home / Away
Henrique
Stamkos
Home
56.4% (553)
55.3% (349)
Away
50.0% (530)
56.9% (288)
By Period
Henrique
Stamkos
P1
51.7%
57.0%
P2
55.5%
59.2%
P3
52.5%
51.5%
OT
66.7%
55.6%
Final 5 min
55.1%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Henrique
52.0%▬
52.5%
53.3%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 11:40 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 11:22 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 07:30 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 03:16 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 15:25 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 15:18 | Defensive | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 11:55 | Neutral | Adam Henrique |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 08:56 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |