Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Lowry wins 60.4% vs right-shot opponents — Bedard shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.4% vs Bedard 46.7% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lowry 57.2%
Defensive zone
Lowry 88.1%
Neutral zone
Lowry 86.0%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 81.1%
81.1%
18.9%
Lowry
Bedard
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Lowry
Bedard
Last 5: Lowry 4-1 Bedard
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Bedard
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lowry
Bedard
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
2
0
Lowry
Bedard
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Bedard
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (675)
44.2% (450)
+11.2%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
70.0% (30)
+13.3%
Penalty Kill
40.4% (89)
53.8% (13)
-13.4%
On penalty kill, Bedard has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bedard shoots right. Lowry is 60.4% vs right-shot opponents (227).
Lowry shoots left. Bedard is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (344).
Home / Away
Lowry
Bedard
Home
54.5% (402)
50.7% (223)
Away
53.3% (368)
42.2% (270)
By Period
Lowry
Bedard
P1
52.4%
40.8%
P2
56.0%
48.2%
P3
54.2%
48.0%
OT
40.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
58.1%
45.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.9%
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
46.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 19:21 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 12:57 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 11:43 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 08:16 | Defensive | Connor Bedard |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 03:59 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |