Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 50.8% vs Pavelski 52.2% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 84.9%
Defensive zone
Lowry 65.6%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 64.1%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 57.2%
57.2%
42.8%
Lowry
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Lowry
Pavelski
Last 6: Lowry 4-2 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Lowry
Pavelski
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
4
1
Lowry
Pavelski
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (936)
51.3% (643)
+0.1%
Power Play
54.1% (85)
58.1% (172)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (274)
46.3% (41)
+1.5%
On power play, Pavelski has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Lowry is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (467).
Lowry shoots left. Pavelski is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (657).
Home / Away
Lowry
Pavelski
Home
52.9% (680)
53.8% (431)
Away
48.5% (615)
51.1% (425)
By Period
Lowry
Pavelski
P1
51.5%
48.4%
P2
51.5%
52.0%
P3
49.3%
55.6%
OT
60.0%
80.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
50.8%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2017 | 3 | 19:12 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 6, 2017 | 2 | 06:45 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 24, 2017 | 1 | 09:13 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 24, 2017 | 1 | 02:30 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 16, 2017 | 2 | 17:27 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 16, 2017 | 1 | 15:39 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |