Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Lowry wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 50.4% vs Pavelski 53.0% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Lowry leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 82.1%
Defensive zone
Lowry 71.0%
Neutral zone
Lowry 50.0%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 50.1%
49.9%
50.1%
Lowry
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Lowry
Pavelski
Last 10: Lowry 5-5 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lowry
Pavelski
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
3
Lowry
Pavelski
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
5
1
Lowry
Pavelski
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (893)
52.3% (560)
+0.4%
Power Play
52.8% (72)
57.5% (113)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (215)
62.5% (16)
-22.5%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +22.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Lowry is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (430).
Lowry shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Home / Away
Lowry
Pavelski
Home
52.4% (597)
54.2% (360)
Away
48.4% (583)
52.6% (329)
By Period
Lowry
Pavelski
P1
48.5%
54.5%
P2
52.2%
56.7%
P3
50.5%
50.8%
OT
50.0%
30.8%
Final 5 min
49.4%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
50.4%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 02:24 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 09:23 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 3 | 05:56 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2 | 15:28 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2 | 15:19 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2 | 07:56 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2 | 04:37 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 3 | 07:55 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 1 | 06:18 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 1 | 03:28 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |