Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.0% vs 52.5%). Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 9 meetings). Lowry wins 57.7% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 52.7% vs Pavelski 52.2% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 70.6%
Defensive zone
Lowry 77.5%
Neutral zone
Lowry 58.7%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 52.6%
47.4%
52.6%
Lowry
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
10
(15 meetings)
5
10
Lowry
Pavelski
Last 10: Lowry 4-6 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
9
Lowry
Pavelski
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
4
1
Lowry
Pavelski
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (796)
52.5% (570)
+3.3%
Power Play
54.7% (53)
54.5% (145)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (215)
44.4% (36)
-2.1%
On even strength, Lowry has a +3.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Lowry is 57.7% vs right-shot opponents (392).
Lowry shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Home / Away
Lowry
Pavelski
Home
53.4% (515)
55.0% (391)
Away
52.6% (549)
49.7% (360)
By Period
Lowry
Pavelski
P1
54.2%
50.8%
P2
54.4%
55.0%
P3
50.8%
52.0%
OT
37.5%
25.0%
Final 5 min
54.2%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.0%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2022 | 3 | 06:50 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 3 | 02:45 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 1 | 16:37 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 1 | 16:25 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 1 | 09:29 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 23, 2022 | 3 | 07:11 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 23, 2022 | 2 | 08:17 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 23, 2022 | 1 | 15:30 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 23, 2022 | 1 | 11:54 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 23, 2022 | 1 | 11:47 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 11, 2022 | 3 | 10:35 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 11, 2022 | 3 | 05:16 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 11, 2022 | 2 | 13:15 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 11, 2022 | 2 | 02:27 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 1 | 09:10 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |