Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 49.1% vs Pavelski 50.9% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 67.4%
Defensive zone
Lowry 73.3%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 50.9%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 55.1%
44.9%
55.1%
Lowry
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Lowry
Pavelski
Last 10: Lowry 5-5 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Lowry
Pavelski
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Pavelski
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
3
Lowry
Pavelski
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (1,064)
51.5% (594)
-2.2%
Power Play
67.7% (65)
51.7% (87)
+16.0%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (251)
28.6% (14)
+14.0%
On power play, Lowry has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Lowry is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (412).
Lowry shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Home / Away
Lowry
Pavelski
Home
50.2% (671)
53.1% (339)
Away
47.8% (709)
49.2% (356)
By Period
Lowry
Pavelski
P1
48.4%
53.8%
P2
50.1%
47.8%
P3
47.8%
50.2%
OT
66.7%
71.4%
Final 5 min
43.8%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
49.0%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 2 | 19:07 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 04:36 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 12:54 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 00:14 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 1 | 13:10 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 13:50 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 08:28 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 02:13 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |