Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Lowry wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 46.7% vs Dowd 50.7% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dowd 64.3%
Defensive zone
Lowry 80.1%
Neutral zone
Lowry 57.4%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 57.6%
57.6%
42.4%
Lowry
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Lowry
Dowd
Last 5: Lowry 2-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Lowry
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (666)
53.6% (28)
-7.1%
Power Play
57.1% (7)
60.0% (5)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (172)
0.0% (1)
+44.8%
On penalty kill, Lowry has a +44.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Lowry is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (368).
Lowry shoots left. Dowd is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (30).
Home / Away
Lowry
Dowd
Home
49.9% (393)
54.5% (11)
Away
43.1% (452)
52.2% (23)
By Period
Lowry
Dowd
P1
45.1%
50.0%
P2
44.8%
45.5%
P3
49.1%
61.5%
Final 5 min
46.2%
75.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
46.3%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2016 | 3 | 18:02 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 24, 2016 | 3 | 11:49 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 24, 2016 | 3 | 08:35 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 24, 2016 | 3 | 00:44 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 24, 2016 | 1 | 10:25 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |