Scouting Report
Adam Lowry holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Carpenter on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 49.1% vs Carpenter 48.2% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carpenter 50.5%
Defensive zone
Lowry 58.2%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 55.1%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 51.9%
48.1%
51.9%
Lowry
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Lowry
Carpenter
Last 7: Lowry 3-4 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lowry
Carpenter
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Carpenter
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
1
3
Lowry
Carpenter
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (1,064)
48.8% (404)
+0.5%
Power Play
67.7% (65)
100.0% (1)
-32.3%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (251)
43.6% (101)
-1.0%
On power play, Carpenter has a +32.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Lowry is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (412).
Lowry shoots left. Carpenter is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (366).
Home / Away
Lowry
Carpenter
Home
50.2% (671)
48.9% (274)
Away
47.8% (709)
46.6% (232)
By Period
Lowry
Carpenter
P1
48.4%
51.9%
P2
50.1%
49.4%
P3
47.8%
41.8%
OT
66.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
43.8%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
49.0%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2024 | 2 | 17:53 | Offensive | Adam Lowry |
| Feb 14, 2024 | 1 | 06:02 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 3 | 11:54 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 3 | 03:14 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 03:06 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |