Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Lowry wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 50.4% vs Johansen 58.2% (-8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 63.5%
Defensive zone
Lowry 86.6%
Neutral zone
Lowry 66.5%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 71.0%
71.0%
29.0%
Lowry
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Lowry
Johansen
Last 9: Lowry 3-6 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
2
Lowry
Johansen
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
3
2
Lowry
Johansen
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
2
Lowry
Johansen
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (893)
59.8% (625)
-7.1%
Power Play
52.8% (72)
58.2% (196)
-5.4%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (215)
51.9% (27)
-11.9%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Lowry is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (430).
Lowry shoots left. Johansen is 60.4% vs left-shot opponents (594).
Home / Away
Lowry
Johansen
Home
52.4% (597)
60.3% (436)
Away
48.4% (583)
58.0% (412)
By Period
Lowry
Johansen
P1
48.5%
61.3%
P2
52.2%
60.4%
P3
50.5%
56.0%
OT
50.0%
56.3%
Final 5 min
49.4%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
50.4%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
59.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 10:12 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 3 | 09:40 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 2 | 15:41 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 08:32 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 15:56 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 1 | 15:24 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 1 | 14:22 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 1 | 14:16 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |