Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.0% vs 52.4%). Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 52.7% vs Aho 52.2% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 80.5%
Defensive zone
Lowry 73.3%
Neutral zone
Lowry 56.9%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 62.1%
37.9%
62.1%
Lowry
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Lowry
Aho
Last 7: Lowry 2-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
4
Lowry
Aho
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Lowry
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (796)
51.6% (819)
+4.2%
Power Play
54.7% (53)
58.4% (173)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (215)
46.3% (67)
-4.0%
On even strength, Lowry has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Lowry is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (672).
Lowry shoots left. Aho is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (674).
Home / Away
Lowry
Aho
Home
53.4% (515)
53.9% (568)
Away
52.6% (549)
50.7% (491)
By Period
Lowry
Aho
P1
54.2%
55.4%
P2
54.4%
51.2%
P3
50.8%
50.9%
OT
37.5%
28.6%
Final 5 min
54.2%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
53.0%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 12:36 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 2 | 18:57 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 1 | 15:46 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 1 | 10:10 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 1 | 07:10 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 3 | 19:05 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 2 | 18:19 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |