Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 51.6% vs Aho 54.9% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 83.9%
Defensive zone
Lowry 81.4%
Neutral zone
Lowry 53.0%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 55.3%
55.3%
44.7%
Lowry
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Lowry
Aho
Last 5: Lowry 3-2 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
2
Lowry
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lowry
3
0
Lowry
Aho
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (933)
54.5% (870)
-0.8%
Power Play
60.7% (28)
62.4% (266)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (227)
37.1% (62)
+5.6%
On penalty kill, Lowry has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Lowry is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (840).
Lowry shoots left. Aho is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (805).
Home / Away
Lowry
Aho
Home
53.0% (583)
53.9% (603)
Away
50.6% (605)
56.8% (595)
By Period
Lowry
Aho
P1
52.1%
54.1%
P2
51.8%
55.0%
P3
52.3%
57.4%
OT
25.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.9%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
51.8%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 13:48 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 13:43 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 2 | 13:04 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 1 | 19:56 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 1 | 19:51 | Defensive | Adam Lowry |