Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Lowry on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 49.1% vs Nosek 51.4% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nosek 57.8%
Defensive zone
Lowry 70.3%
Neutral zone
Lowry 50.5%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 50.9%
49.1%
50.9%
Lowry
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Lowry
Nosek
Last 6: Lowry 3-3 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
1
Lowry
Nosek
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
3
2
Lowry
Nosek
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (1,064)
54.4% (215)
-5.1%
Power Play
67.7% (65)
0.0% (1)
+67.7%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (251)
23.5% (17)
+19.1%
On power play, Lowry has a +67.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Lowry is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (968).
Lowry shoots left. Nosek is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (154).
Home / Away
Lowry
Nosek
Home
50.2% (671)
50.4% (127)
Away
47.8% (709)
53.8% (106)
By Period
Lowry
Nosek
P1
48.4%
51.4%
P2
50.1%
51.3%
P3
47.8%
53.2%
Final 5 min
43.8%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
46.0%▼
54.5%
49.0%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 17:40 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 03:11 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 19:18 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Mar 21, 2024 | 1 | 19:28 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |