Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Kempe wins 41.9% vs right-shot opponents — Coyle shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 41.0% vs Coyle 48.8% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Coyle leads 13-10 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Kempe 75.7%
Defensive zone
Coyle 51.2%
Neutral zone
Kempe 65.6%
Result
Adrian Kempe favored at 61.2%
61.2%
38.8%
Kempe
Coyle
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
13
(23 meetings)
10
13
Kempe
Coyle
Last 10: Kempe 3-7 Coyle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
2
3
Kempe
Coyle
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
4
5
Kempe
Coyle
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
4
5
Kempe
Coyle
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
Coyle
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (1,881)
49.4% (7,856)
-9.2%
Power Play
43.1% (211)
50.0% (792)
-6.9%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (54)
43.6% (1,090)
-1.0%
On even strength, Coyle has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Coyle shoots right. Kempe is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (790).
Kempe shoots left. Coyle is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (6,979).
Home / Away
Kempe
Coyle
Home
42.4% (1,045)
49.8% (4,835)
Away
38.8% (1,101)
47.9% (4,903)
By Period
Kempe
Coyle
P1
39.5%
49.4%
P2
40.1%
48.3%
P3
42.2%
48.8%
OT
37.0%
49.0%
Final 5 min
37.2%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
40.5%
Coyle
48.0%▼
51.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2026 | 2 | 10:11 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 07:31 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 13:55 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 04:59 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 04:52 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 15, 2019 | 1 | 14:34 | Neutral | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 15, 2019 | 1 | 07:50 | Neutral | Adrian Kempe |
| Jan 15, 2019 | 1 | 04:39 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 1 | 16:16 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 8, 2018 | 1 | 16:11 | Defensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 3 | 03:39 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 2 | 01:39 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 1 | 09:33 | Defensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Apr 5, 2018 | 3 | 01:41 | Defensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Apr 5, 2018 | 2 | 17:40 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 19, 2018 | 3 | 18:00 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 19, 2018 | 2 | 18:29 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 19, 2018 | 2 | 04:47 | Defensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Mar 19, 2018 | 1 | 00:47 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Dec 5, 2017 | 3 | 04:35 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |