Scouting Report
Mathew Barzal holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kempe on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kempe wins 41.9% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kempe 41.0% vs Barzal 42.2% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kempe 54.1%
Defensive zone
Barzal 65.7%
Neutral zone
Barzal 55.3%
Result
Mathew Barzal favored at 52.8%
47.2%
52.8%
Kempe
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Kempe
Barzal
Last 7: Kempe 4-3 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kempe
2
1
Kempe
Barzal
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
1
Kempe
Barzal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kempe
2
1
Kempe
Barzal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kempe
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
40.2% (1,881)
41.9% (3,565)
-1.7%
Power Play
43.1% (211)
43.4% (205)
-0.3%
Penalty Kill
42.6% (54)
42.3% (26)
+0.3%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Kempe is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (790).
Kempe shoots left. Barzal is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,699).
Home / Away
Kempe
Barzal
Home
42.4% (1,045)
43.1% (1,895)
Away
38.8% (1,101)
40.9% (1,901)
By Period
Kempe
Barzal
P1
39.5%
40.7%
P2
40.1%
44.4%
P3
42.2%
41.0%
OT
37.0%
27.6%
Final 5 min
37.2%
39.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kempe
26.0%▼
35.5%
40.5%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
42.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2019 | 2 | 17:08 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 1 | 04:25 | Offensive | Adrian Kempe |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 1 | 01:31 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 3 | 08:11 | Neutral | Adrian Kempe |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 2 | 13:51 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 1 | 14:56 | Neutral | Adrian Kempe |
| Dec 16, 2017 | 1 | 19:10 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |