Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Barkov wins 55.5% vs right-shot opponents — Ryan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.4% vs Ryan 54.9% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barkov 74.5%
Defensive zone
Ryan 73.5%
Neutral zone
Ryan 60.8%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 57.5%
42.5%
57.5%
Barkov
Ryan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Barkov
Ryan
Last 6: Barkov 2-4 Ryan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
2
0
Barkov
Ryan
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
0
4
Barkov
Ryan
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Ryan
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (870)
60.2% (387)
-3.2%
Power Play
63.8% (210)
28.6% (7)
+35.2%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (172)
43.2% (118)
+5.1%
On power play, Barkov has a +35.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ryan shoots right. Barkov is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (533).
Barkov shoots left. Ryan is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (370).
Home / Away
Barkov
Ryan
Home
59.2% (557)
56.7% (254)
Away
55.1% (695)
55.0% (258)
By Period
Barkov
Ryan
P1
56.7%
56.9%
P2
54.8%
51.7%
P3
59.7%
59.2%
OT
55.6%
0.0%
Final 5 min
59.4%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
56.9%
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2022 | 3 | 11:05 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 1 | 17:49 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 1 | 16:21 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 20, 2022 | 3 | 15:05 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 20, 2022 | 3 | 09:29 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 20, 2022 | 1 | 13:11 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |