Aleksander Barkov vs Dylan Larkin
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Barkov wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.0% vs Larkin 54.2% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 11-6 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Barkov 62.1%
Defensive zone
Larkin 70.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 54.9%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 50.7%
49.3%
50.7%
Barkov
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
11
(17 meetings)
6
11
Barkov
Larkin
Last 6: Barkov 3-3 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
4
2
Barkov
Larkin
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
2
Barkov
Larkin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
2
7
Barkov
Larkin
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (704)
52.6% (1,117)
+2.9%
Power Play
62.3% (247)
60.7% (305)
+1.6%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (75)
55.9% (177)
-9.2%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Barkov is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Barkov shoots left. Larkin is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Home / Away
Barkov
Larkin
Home
56.4% (550)
54.7% (783)
Away
56.7% (476)
54.3% (816)
By Period
Barkov
Larkin
P1
56.5%
55.9%
P2
55.5%
56.1%
P3
57.9%
51.1%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
58.7%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
56.5%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 11:35 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 02:30 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 09:10 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 06:27 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 06:09 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |